Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.310241 2.444710 2.591018 2.763667 2.964096 3.192446 3.476936
2025-09-14 2.112137 2.271537 2.451711 2.674095 2.946798 3.278721 3.728432
2025-09-21 2.011576 2.189806 2.397227 2.662583 3.003285 3.443189 4.089757
2025-09-28 1.915827 2.102791 2.324784 2.616091 3.003011 3.526033 4.348957
2025-10-05 1.882675 2.086454 2.334254 2.669706 3.134887 3.803540 4.965051
2025-10-12 1.865131 2.086539 2.362198 2.747394 3.306639 4.168486 5.864945
2025-10-19 1.814688 2.041545 2.328041 2.736336 3.346872 4.333410 6.467743
2025-10-26 1.776093 2.009090 2.307487 2.741209 3.409806 4.546904 7.300516
2025-11-02 1.719586 1.950639 2.248693 2.686418 3.372281 4.572464 7.684807
2025-11-09 1.680923 1.913691 2.216781 2.667972 3.390490 4.705441 8.483039
2025-11-16 1.647009 1.881460 2.189451 2.653914 3.413663 4.852489 9.490916
2025-11-23 1.614166 1.849299 2.160539 2.635216 3.426421 4.980563 10.621515
2025-11-30 1.593627 1.833768 2.155317 2.654277 3.510951 5.297984 13.475391
2025-12-07 1.542634 1.775479 2.087438 2.571943 3.405064 5.148507 13.238076
2025-12-14 1.516918 1.750620 2.065980 2.561162 3.429152 5.321646 16.037593
2025-12-21 1.483007 1.713576 2.025722 2.518311 3.389450 5.326229 17.581081
2025-12-28 1.478451 1.716368 2.042532 2.567407 3.529169 5.849705 35.326042
2026-01-04 1.480025 1.727471 2.071653 2.638438 3.723057 6.642970 NaN
2026-01-11 1.459334 1.706832 2.053014 2.628255 3.748447 6.910903 NaN
2026-01-18 1.443583 1.692633 2.043363 2.632656 3.805596 7.331429 NaN
2026-01-25 1.414446 1.658845 2.003237 2.582469 3.737718 7.231263 NaN
2026-02-01 1.395084 1.638465 1.982757 2.565534 3.742886 7.444602 NaN
2026-02-08 1.377603 1.620334 1.965102 2.552621 3.755903 7.705860 NaN